Early or late? What 5 overseas NFL games say about travel plans

Before the Saints and Steelers played in Paris, we wrote that the science favored the Saints on travel. They flew in on Monday and had almost a week on local time. The Steelers landed Friday morning, about 2 days before kickoff [1]. The Steelers won 16-10, ran for 150 yards and held the Saints to 18 [2]. Cam Heyward called the trip "a little rough" and said he was not going to cry about spilled milk [2]. So we wanted to know whether Pittsburgh got lucky or whether the late plan is a real strategy. This case study compares every overseas NFL game this season where we could confirm when both teams arrived.

How we built the comparison

We included 2026 regular-season games played across the Atlantic or Pacific, where public reporting shows when each team traveled. That gave us 5 games: Melbourne in week 1, 3 London games in weeks 4 to 6, and Paris in week 7. We left out the Rio game because Rio is only 1 to 2 time zones from the US East Coast, so jet lag barely applies. For each game we marked one team as the early arriver and one as the late arriver, then recorded who won and by how much.

The 5 games

Melbourne, week 1: the 49ers landed 7 nights before kickoff and the Rams landed about 28 hours before. The 49ers won 27-7 as 3.5-point underdogs [3]. London, week 4: the Commanders left for London on Tuesday and practiced there all week [4]. The Colts were set to fly Thursday night [5]. The Colts won 30-13 [6]. London, week 5: the Jaguars flew over on Monday, and the Eagles finished a full week of practice at home, left Friday night and landed Saturday morning [7]. The Jaguars won 19-17 on a 57-yard field goal [8]. London, week 6: the Jaguars had spent about 2 weeks in London, and the Texans crossed the Atlantic later in the week [3]. The Texans won 34-31 on a field goal as time expired [9]. Paris, week 7: the Saints landed Monday and the Steelers landed Friday. The Steelers won 16-10 [2].

What the results say

Teams that landed early won 2 games. Teams that landed late won 3. With 2 opposite strategies, that is close to a coin flip. 3 of the 5 games were decided by 6 points or less. One pattern stands out. The 3 late teams that flew Thursday or later in the week, then had a day or more to settle, went 3-0. The 2 late teams that landed only about 1 day before kickoff, the Rams in Melbourne and the Eagles in London, both lost. Even that pattern is not clean. Last season the Rams landed in London about 24 hours before kickoff and beat the Jaguars 35-7 [10][11].

What it does not say

5 games is a tiny sample, and travel is only one of many things that decide a football game. Talent, injuries, the matchup and the game plan matter more. The authors of a preprint on the Melbourne game, the cleanest early-versus-late contrast of the season, were careful not to conclude that arriving early wins games [3]. A study of 21 seasons of Super Rugby found that a lot of what looks like jet lag is plain away-game disadvantage [12]. None of this proves that late travel is better. What it does show is that neither calendar is a guaranteed edge on its own.

The plan matters more than the day you fly

The research on the body clock has not changed. Flying east, the body catches up at about 1 time zone per day, and the first 48 to 72 hours after landing are the hardest [13]. An early trip only works if players actually shift to local time. A late trip only works if the team fully commits to staying on home time, with sleep, light, meals and meetings all held to the home clock, so nobody drifts into the middle. The middle is where travel costs the most. Every team in this study had a plan, and the plan held when it fit the schedule and the people in it. A 34-year-old lineman and a 22-year-old receiver do not adjust to a 6-hour time change the same way. Most staffs still pick one plan for 53 players and hope it holds.

Stop guessing

ObeoFit builds a travel plan for every athlete. It covers when to sleep on the plane, when to get daylight, when to eat, and how to handle a clock change, and the agent texts each player what to do and when. Staff see who is on track and who is drifting. Whether your team flies Monday or Friday, the goal is the same: show up on game day on the clock you planned for.